No threat of imminent encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut – ISW

Recent Russian gains in Soledar do not portend an imminent encirclement of Bakhmut, contrary to claims made by Russian sources.

The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in its latest Russian offensive campaign assessment.

American analysts noted that even at the most generous interpretation of Russian milblogger narratives, which claim that Russian forces are fighting on the outskirts of Razdolivka (about 6km northwest of Soledar), Russian forces are still far from being within striking distance of an operational encirclement of Bakhmut.

"Considering that the recent rate of gains in this area has been on the order of a few hundred meters a day, at most, it is highly unlikely that Russian forces will be successful in cohering a mechanized push towards these GLOCs and move towards encircling Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut would still have GLOCs available even if the Russians cut the E40, moreover, making the entire discussion of an encirclement at this point bizarre," the report said.

On January 7, Serhii Cherevatyi, the spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that the cities of Soledar and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region remained under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.