Hostilities near Donetsk region’s Bakhmut close to climax – ISW

russian troops have reached the peak of their capabilities near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Therefore, the russian army will no longer be able to maintain the high intensity of hostilities in this area shortly.

Rubryka reports, referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.

As analysts noted, the Ukrainian military probably liberated several settlements in the Kharkiv region and one more in the Luhansk region. Therefore, the territory captured by russia in the northeast of Ukraine decreased by 46 square kilometers.

The ISW also stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to counterattack the Svatove-Kreminna line.

According to russian military personnel, Ukrainian defenders captured a russian stronghold near Chervonopivka, 5 km from Kreminna. Thus, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued the advance in this direction, which began on December 23.

The Institute added, citing russian sources, that there had been a regrouping of Ukrainian troops. Reinforcements from the Kharkiv region were transferred to the Kreminna area to resume offensive operations.

However, the Institute for the Study of War analysts could not confirm this information.

At the same time, the ISW admitted that they had underestimated the success of Ukrainian troops in the northeast of Ukraine. They recalled the statement of the head of the Kharkiv regional military administration, Oleh Synehubov. On December 27, he stated that russian troops occupy 1.6% of the territory of the Kharkiv region.

"Ukrainian forces likely captured Dvorichna, Novomlynsk, and Tavilzhanka in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and Kolomiychikha in Luhansk Oblast, given that both Russian and Ukrainian sources reported Russian shelling against these settlements on December 27," ISW analysts stated.

At the same time, russia is concentrating its primary efforts on the Donetsk region. After all, the occupying forces are tasked with reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region.

The situation near Bakhmut remains particularly tense. russian troops have been trying in vain to capture the city for several months in a row.

"Russian forces in Bakhmut may be nearing culmination as Russian forces in Kherson did in August 2022.

Russian combat losses are likely forcing the Russian military in the Bakhmut area to use squad-sized assault groups," American analysts stressed.

Experts stated that the russian troops in the Bakhmut area abandoned the tactics of using the company and battalion tactical groups. They started using small groups of 10 to 15 servicemen.

"Russian forces similarly degenerated from company and battalion tactical groups to individual squad-sized groups when Russian units in Kherson Oblast became markedly degraded in August 2022.

ISW assessed at the time that the Russian military's use of squad-sized groups in Kherson Oblast indicated that the Russian offensive had culminated as Russian ground forces were degraded so badly that they could no longer operate elements at echelons high enough to make meaningful gains," the ISW explained.

Analysts also noted that the rate of advance of the russian armed forces in the Bakhmut area has recently slowed down due to a shortage of personnel and ammunition. This will likely prevent them from maintaining a high rate of offensive operations in the area for the foreseeable future.

"The Russian military's reported use of squad-sized groups is likely a result of prolonged attritional warfare and indicates the degradation of larger doctrinal formations above the platoon level," the ISW concluded.

Earlier, ISW explained what was behind lavrov's statements about the "denazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine and his accusations against the West.

Lavrov said that the Kremlin will continue to seek military solutions until "the Ukrainian government capitulates to russia's demands."