Demographers expect catastrophic drop in birth rate in Ukraine in 2023

A catastrophic drop in the birth rate is predicted for next year. There are risks that the population of Ukraine will decrease to at least 35 million by 2030, according to the M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies.

The director of the M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ella Libanova, tells at a presentation on the topic "Post-war revival of Ukraine. Vision of the Department of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine" at Ukrinform.

Ella Libanova emphasized: "I dream there will be 35 million of us by 2030. Unfortunately, this may not happen. Because the war continues, we are losing people due to excessive mortality. These are not only the dead but also those who die due to stress, overload, poor nutrition, insufficient medical care."

Also, according to Libanova, the low birth rate is a sign.

"We don't feel this to the full extent yet. But 2023 will be the year of a catastrophic drop in this indicator," said the National Academy of Sciences academician.

Libanova noted: "Let's say, to have a simple restoration of generations, one woman should give birth to 2.13 — 2.15 children during her lifetime (on average). In 2021, we had an indicator of 1.1. In 2022, even less, but the reduction will not be catastrophic due to the children born in the year's first half. God forbid that in 2023 we stop at the rate of 0.8."

She considers migration to be another, numerically most painful, but not so terrible, problem. People who fled the war abroad are alive — and there is hope they will return. And the prospect of return, above all, will depend on the duration of hostilities and the conditions that will develop after the war.

"The longer people stay abroad, the more they will adapt and try to stay there forever. In addition to the fact that the hot phase of the war will last longer, our infrastructure will be more destroyed – both industrial and social, especially housing. If people have destroyed housing and if they don't have a job, they will have nowhere and nothing to return to," Libanova explained.

According to the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, since 1994, Ukraine's population has decreased annually, and now there are approximately 34-35 million people living in the country.

The mass deportation of residents of the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine by the russian invaders may indicate moscow's intention to change the demographic composition of these regions.