putin’s visit to Belarus: what is known

On December 19, for the first time in two years, russian president vladimir putin visited Belarus. The Ukrainian side fears he will encourage Alexander Lukashenko to join the current war.

Rubryka writes about the meeting of the leaders of russia and Belarus.

The leader of the Belarusian regime began his congratulatory speech by saying that the decisions on closer integration of russia and Belarus "demonstrate to the whole world that any pandemic, crisis or sanctions can be overcome only together."

According to him, the main priority of the meeting is to resolve economic issues and discuss defense and security issues. In addition, Lukashenko expressed hope that Europe would "listen to the voice of reason."

"russia and Belarus, as vladymyr vladymyrovych and I often say, are open to dialogue with other states, including European ones. I hope that soon they will listen to the voice of reason there, and we will proceed to a constructive discussion of common security issues and the future world system," he added.

The russian president announced that he is waiting for a new record in trade turnover, which should reach 40 billion dollars. He also emphasized that Belarus is an ally in every sense of the word.

In addition, putin emphasized that:

• he is satisfied with the way relations with Belarus are being built
• he is ready to further develop nuclear projects in Belarus
• there are plans for cooperation in space.Currently, it is known that the defense ministers of russia and Belarus have already met.

According to the Belarusian agency, issues of military-technical cooperation and strengthening the defense capabilities of the two states were discussed.

Why did putin come to Lukashenko? Versions of the parties

Belarus

The belarusian side announced putin's visit and talks at the highest level "on the entire spectrum of the most pressing issues of bilateral integration." In addition to the leaders, members of the governments of russia and belarus, heads of ministries, and departments take part in the meetings.

It was planned that putin and Lukashenko would discuss in detail the progress of implementing previously adopted alliance programs. Including issues of trade and economic interaction — joint projects with an emphasis on import substitution. In addition, Minsk hoped to achieve concessions in the energy sector.

russia

Speaking about the visit to Belarus, the press secretary of russia's president, Dmytro Peskov, said that no one is forcing it to integrate. According to him, both parties are "taking steps that correspond to their interests."

He also noted that the presidents would talk about gas and military issues and commented to the russian mass media how to treat the information that putin would persuade Lukashenko to enter the war with Ukraine.

"To treat this as absolutely stupid, baseless thoughts. Belarus is the number one ally and partner of the russian federation. It is with belarus that we have the most advanced integration regime, so no one is forcing anyone, everyone is taking steps that best suit: a) our peoples' interests, b) the interests of our union state," Peskov said.

Ukraine

The commander of the United Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Nayev, is sure that the involvement of Belarus and the deployment of a ground operation are being discussed in Minsk.

"In our opinion, during this meeting, the issues of further aggression against Ukraine and wider involvement of the armed forces of the Republic of belarus in operation against Ukraine will be worked out, in particular, in our opinion, on land," he said.

According to the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podoliak, putin will demand Lukashenko to fulfill the alliance agreements. And he had to personally go to Minsk for that since putin's status has dropped so much that he needs to go himself and persuade his partners. At the same time, Podolyak doubts the possibility of a second offensive from the territory of Belarus.

It should be noted that the interviewed military experts also agree that the involvement of Belarusian troops is one of the visit's goals. Read more in the article "russian plan. When and how a major offensive against Ukraine may begin."

Western analysts

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that today's meeting is part of efforts to create informational conditions for a new stage of the war against Ukraine. At the same time, even the russian army, reinforced by Belarusian units, is not capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations in the next few months.

Although analysts do not rule out that, despite all the problems, putin may try to resume the offensive later this winter. But in this case, it is hardly worth counting on the help of Lukashenko.

What was agreed upon earlier

It should be noted that Lukashenko met with putin many times this year; since the beginning of 2022, he visited russia 7 times — on February 18, March 11, April 12, May 16, May 23, June 25, and September 26.

His visit to Sochi coincided with the end of the ninth month of the russian war in Ukraine. Lukashenko then emphasized that life in russia and Belarus has changed dramatically, and "import substitution is fine." But it was remarkable that the leaders of both countries demanded respect for themselves from the West.

"Here is everything they need, and they have what we can buy — technologies and other things. What else do they need? We just need to make responsible decisions. Well, if they don't want to — they don't need to. We will gradually build up," — Lukashenko on the issue of sanctions.

To which putin then said that Western countries still need to "treat us with respect." At the negotiations in Sochi, the Belarusian leader also said that "NATO is concentrating their troops and preparing to dismember Ukraine."

It should be noted that no serious results were reported as a result of that meeting. But the opposition Belarusian mass media assumed that even then, Lukashenko expressed his readiness for broader participation in the war against Ukraine.