ISW: russia likely to prepare for large-scale offensive in January and February 2023
In January and February 2023, the russian army is likely to prepare for a large-scale offensive.
Rubryka reports, referring to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.
Analysts said Ukraine's foreign minister Kuleba's statement was consistent with their assessment that the winter months would accelerate the pace of operations on both sides. Also, conditions on the ground throughout Ukraine are likely to be favorable for offensive operations.
Thus, russian troops can most easily resume offensive operations in two main advance directions in the coming months–along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border in northeastern Ukraine or the Donetsk region.
ISW noted that russian troops are moving heavy equipment from the rear areas of the Luhansk region to areas near the current front line along the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. And they also changed and re-consolidated their grouping of forces along this line.
It is also noticeable that russian troops are conducting limited offensive actions along this line, in particular, to regain lost positions west of Kreminna.
The recent sub-freezing temperatures in the area allowed the ground to harden, which likely created the conditions for an increased pace of offensive operations.
russian combat forces, released after withdrawing from the western (right) bank of the Kherson region, were redeployed to the various areas of Donbas, reinforced by mobilized reservists.
In addition, russian forces may hope to launch an offensive in the western Donetsk region to build on the modest progress made in November in the Vuhledar-Pavlivka area.
"ISW continues to assess that Russian forces seek to complete the capture of the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, and potential future offensives in western Donetsk Oblast may be intended to complement ongoing offensive drives on the western outskirts of Donetsk City and around Bakhmut to accomplish this wider territorial objective," the experts emphasized.
However, despite the possibility of new offensive operations, ISW continues to assess that russia's combat capabilities remain degraded. russian troops are unlikely to capture strategically important territory in the coming months.
We will remind you that the Ukrainian military continues advancing along the front line. Mykhailo Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the Office of the President, named four reasons why Ukraine cannot and does not intend to "freeze" a counteroffensive in winter.
