Ukraine's endeavour to return Crimea may be bloody and difficult — media
Ukraine's Western partners are cautious about the return of Crimea and occupied Donbas. The publication notes that Ukraine may face resistance from russian partisans and think about the danger of narrow, open lanes or swampy areas.
The Economist reports this.
"Military operations in Crimea more usually end with thousands dead: in the last century alone, hundreds of thousands have fallen at its gates, primarily in the Russian civil war and the second world war, to say nothinxg of the vast casualties during the Crimean war of the 1850s. Taking the peninsula has usually required crossing narrow, open strips or marshlands. Military experts with intimate knowledge of the peninsula said that the topography should give Ukraine pause for thought.
Admiral Mykola Zhibarev, who back in 1992 provoked the break-up of Russia's Black Sea Fleet by declaring his frigate to be Ukrainian, now says that diplomacy is the most promising route to regaining the contested territory. Andrii Ryzhenko, a retired navy captain, born in Crimea, says that a successful operation would require a lot of things to go right. "There is a real prospect that things will end in a bloodbath. That is an operation Ukraine does not need," the text says.
It is noted that Ukraine's Western partners fear that an operation to return Crimea or Donbas (from a military point of view, perhaps an easier proposition) could push russia to escalation and even to the use of nuclear weapons.
The former commander of the airborne assault troops of Ukraine, Mykhailo Zabrodsky, said that the operation to return Crimea was not only possible but was also being prepared for 2023. However, he could not say when exactly this operation could begin. Zabrodsky also insists that Ukrainian military planners have developed tactics that can work.
Ukraine does not intend to enter into a senseless frontal assault on Crimea, he says. There are other "interesting" possibilities for combined arms maneuvers, using land troops, sea landings, and air attacks. Russian naval and air dominance could be thwarted with "asymmetric tricks."
He added that the attacks by Ukrainian drones on the Black Sea Fleet at the end of October, the damage to the Admiral Makarov flagship, and the destruction of part of the Kerch Bridge were examples of Ukraine's thinking: "We will surprise people — and many times — again."
In private conversations, political leaders in Kyiv admit that it will be more difficult to return Donbas and Crimea. They admit that a significant part of the population there remains hostile to Kyiv. The operation to retake Crimea will likely encounter partisan resistance from pro-russian forces.
The Ukrainian command is discreet about its next steps. Sources in the Armed Forces say that "nothing is off the table," including operations against the territory seized by russia before February 24. Roads leading to Crimea are now within range of Ukrainian firepower, including HIMARS, which has complicated russian logistics.
The russian-appointed authorities in Crimea are preparing for a ground attack, ordering the construction of new fortifications and trenches, and declaring a state of emergency in several parts of the peninsula. Residents of Dzhankoy report that trenches are being built near the airbase.
Ukraine's primary task remains to destroy the Crimean bridge connecting the russian mainland with Crimea. The russian military also understands this and has accordingly devised and manned defense lines.
A military intelligence source is confident that Ukraine's structural advantages, primarily its ability to organize highly mobile surprise attacks and disrupt supply lines, will prevail.
"We have demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again," the source said.
The publication notes that an attempt to return Crimea under Ukraine's control will be costly in military terms and will cause splits with the allies.
