russia is unlikely to be able to form combat-ready formations of stated number in Belarus — British intelligence

The transfer of russian troops to Belarus is likely demonstrative and aimed at encouraging Ukraine to transfer part of its forces to the northern border.

The Ministry of Defense of Great Britain reported this on Twitter with reference to intelligence data.

"On 14 October 2022, Belarussian president Aleksandr Lukashenko said that 70,000 Belarusian troops and up to 15,000 Russians would be involved in a new Russian-Belarussian Group of Forces. On 15 October 2022, the Belarussian authorities released a video claiming to show the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus. However, to date, it is unlikely that Russia has actually deployed a significant number of extra troops into Belarus," the agency said.

The British Ministry of Defense noted that russia is unlikely to be able to form combat-ready formations of the stated number since its troops are concentrated in Ukraine, and the Belarusian military, most likely, "retains minimal capabilities for conducting complex operations."

"The announcement is likely an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border," the agency stated.