putin will use any ceasefire to prepare for offensive — ISW

russian president vladimir putin's intentions are unlikely to change regardless of whether a ceasefire occurs: the kremlin will use any cessation of hostilities to consolidate gains and freeze the front line in putin's best configuration to prepare for further aggression against Ukraine.

This was reported by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts write that those who seek lasting peace in Ukraine should resist the temptation to freeze the battle line in such a way as to create the conditions for a renewed war on russia's terms.

The specific parts of Ukrainian territory still under russian occupation are essential to the long-term viability of an independent Ukraine.

In particular, Crimea is a strategically important region for both NATO and Ukraine. The occupation of the peninsula allows russia to base anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles 325 kilometers further west than it could, using only territory it legally controls.

It also allows russia to place aircraft in Sevastopol, approximately 300 kilometers west of the air bases on the territory of the russian federation.

As ISW writes, this difference has implications for the scale of the threat that russia can pose to NATO's southeastern flank, as well as for russia's ability to prepare and support an invasion of Ukraine.

Of all the Ukrainian lands that NATO is interested in regaining, Crimea should be at the top of the list.

In addition, it is noted that the current russian fortification on the west bank in the Kherson region is a vital part of the area. If a ceasefire or any agreement halts the hostilities and the russians still hold this area, the prospects for a renewed russian offensive in southern Ukraine will improve significantly.

On the other hand, if Ukraine regains control of the entire west bank of the river, it will likely be challenging for the russians to mount ground attacks on southwestern Ukraine. Thus, the long-term defense capability of Mykolaiv, Odesa, and the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine largely depends on the liberation of western Kherson.

Parts of the Kherson region on the eastern bank of the Dnipro are also strategically important. russian military positions in these areas allow russian forces to fire across much of Ukraine's Black Sea coast from multiple short-range systems without the need to use expensive long-range assets, which will always be in the minority.

ISW writes that the Dnipro should not be the first line of Ukraine's defense but rather the last. The river is the best defense if the russians are to advance to it first and then prepare to cross while the Ukrainian defenders undermine their efforts. Ukraine should be able to create and maintain positions on the river's eastern bank.

The irresponsibility demonstrated by russia regarding nuclear facilities in Ukraine also makes it important from a security point of view to return the ZNPP to Ukrainian control. By allowing moscow to retain control over the ZNPP, Ukraine and other states are at constant risk of russia's readiness to play with nuclear fire.

Therefore, keeping the russians out of Enerhodar's artillery range is also necessary. In principle, the line required for reliable protection by Ukrainian troops of the ZNPP is located approximately 50 kilometers south of Enerhodar.

Another critical node is Melitopol. If the russians retain control of Melitopol and the roads to the south and east of it, they can turn it into a large military base from which to launch attacks.

Such a base, in terms of the number of military facilities and capabilities placed on it, may become similar to Belgorod. It will pose a constant threat to the ZNPP, Ukrainian positions on the Dnipro's eastern bank, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro.

Analysts of the Institute write that if Ukraine regains control over Melitopol, the russians will be limited to Crimea and the route through the Isthmus of Perekop. Defending against such an attack is much easier.

There are also several strategically important areas in the northeast of Ukraine. The cities of Svatove, Starobilsk, and Bilovodsk are located at major road junctions, control of which partly determines which bases in russia itself the russians can use to support future attacks directly in Ukraine.

The railway running north from Luhansk through Starobilsk to the russian border is particularly important, as russian forces are heavily dependent on the railway. The russians can also transfer troops from the base in Boguchar to Ukraine via the road that passes through Bilovodsk. If russia retains control of these key road and rail hubs and networks, it will give moscow a significant advantage in preparation for a renewed invasion from the northeast.