putin is appeasing his supporters with missile attacks on Ukraine – ISW
russia "appeases" russian nationalists and their supporters by launching missile strikes on Ukraine.
Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report that publicized news of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized russian servicemen in Ukraine have sparked new criticism of the russian military command.
russian media reported that five Chelyabinsk mobilized men had already died in the war in Ukraine just three weeks after putin announced partial mobilization on September 21.
The Kremlin continues to make efforts to divert attention from mobilization and military failures.
putin has also temporarily appeased his nationalist communities by launching missile strikes on Ukraine.
ISW notes that russian forces continued to strike critical Ukrainian infrastructure facilities on October 13.
According to the institute's analysts, russian troops probably continue to use Iranian Shahed-136 drones to support massive strike campaigns against critical Ukrainian infrastructure facilities due to their low effectiveness in active hostilities.
In addition, ISW suggests that the deterioration of morale, discipline and fighting capacity of russian forces in the combat zone in Ukraine may lead to a temporary suspension of offensive operations in certain areas.
At the same time, suspending offensive operations in the areas of the Donetsk region (actually the only ones in Ukraine where russian troops are conducting offensive operations) will make it even more difficult for russia to seize additional territories. It will probably contribute to further deterioration of morale and general depletion of military potential.
ISW's key takeaways
- Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the russian military command.
- russian forces continued to launch strikes on critical Ukrainian infrastructure on October 13.
- Increasingly degraded morale, discipline, and combat capabilities among russian troops in combat zones in Ukraine may lead to temporary suspensions in offensive operations in limited areas.
- Ukrainian forces made gains northwest of Svatove.
- russian forces are continuing defensive operations in anticipation of potential Ukrainian attacks toward Kreminna.
- Ukrainian and russian sources stated that russian troops are attempting to recapture positions in the northern and northwestern Kherson region.
- Damage to the Kerch Strait Bridge continues to impede the movement of russian supplies and personnel to the south of Ukraine.
- russian forces continued ground attacks in the Donetsk region and claimed to make marginal advances south of Bakhmut.
- russian incompetence continues to take its toll on mobilized personnel before they ever reach the front lines, likely exacerbating already-low morale.
- russian officials are likely increasingly limiting freedom of movement in russia to preserve additional mobilizable populations and prevent them from fleeing the country.
- russian occupation officials called for the evacuation of civilians from the occupied Kherson region.
