ISW predicts annexation of Ukrainian territories by October 1

The kremlin may announce the annexation of the occupied territories of Ukraine around October 1

Rubryka writes about this, referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.

Analysts believe that russia is in a hurry to announce the annexation to forcibly send Ukrainians to war against the Armed Forces.

"The kremlin's planned annexation of occupied Ukraine may occur before or shortly after October 1, the start of Russia's normal fall conscription cycle, to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians to fight against Ukraine.

If it does, the kremlin will likely order the russian Ministry of Defense to include Ukrainian civilians in occupied and newly annexed Ukrainian territory in the russian conscription cycle, broadening the forced mobilization of Ukrainian civilians to fight against Ukraine," the Institute for the Study of War reports.

ISW also emphasizes that one of the motives for putin to announce mobilization and annexation together is the expansion of forced mobilization of Ukrainians.

However, civilians do not meet the criteria of the current order of the russian federation on partial mobilization — almost none of them are in the mobilized age categories and, most likely, do not have experience of service in the russian army.

At the same time, the "newly created russians" in the annexed territories would have the right to be called up for military service, analysts add.

In russia, they are trying to calm the population, but there has been no success since protests took place in at least 35 settlements on September 25 and in at least 10 settlements on September 26.

"The Kremlin is executing a declared reserve partial mobilization as if it were partial conscription, exacerbating societal discontent," analysts emphasize.

It should be noted that on September 21, russian dictator vladimir putin announced a partial mobilization in russia. Later, the relevant decree appeared on the kremlin's website, and russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that 300,000 people would be mobilized.

Due to the haste and lack of instructors, those mobilized in russia will find themselves on the front line in Ukraine after minimal training.

British intelligence believes that putin may soon announce the annexation of the occupied territories, but this will not have the desired effect in the russian federation.

Also, according to the intelligence of the British Ministry of Defense, mobilization in the russian federation will be extremely unpopular.