Defeat in Kharkiv region prompted russian authorities to intensify covert mobilization — ISW

After the successful counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the defeat of russian troops in the Kharkiv region, the russian authorities are intensifying covert mobilization and recruitment for the war in Ukraine.

It was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Ukrainian troops continue counteroffensive actions in the east of Ukraine, increasing pressure on russian positions and lines of logistical support in the east of Kharkiv, northern Luhansk, and eastern Donetsk regions.

In this regard, analysts suggest that russian forces in eastern Ukraine will likely find it difficult to hold their defense lines if Ukrainian troops continue to advance further east.

The Kremlin reacts to the defeat in the Kharkiv region by intensifying covert mobilization rather than putting forward conditions for a general one.

The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, called on all federation subjects to start "self-mobilization" and not wait for the Kremlin to declare martial law.

Kadyrov said that each subject of the russian federation must prove its readiness to help russia by attracting at least 1,000 military personnel. Some governors supported such a call. And Serhii Aksyonov, the head of occupied Crimea appointed by russia, announced the formation of two volunteer battalions on the peninsula in support of Kadyrov's calls.

In addition, as ISW notes, the defeat in the Kharkiv region prompted the Kremlin to announce a nationwide recruitment drive.

The authorities of the russian federation have probably abandoned their efforts to protect individual subjects of the federation from recruitment, which could increase social tension.

Key conclusions of ISW experts:

• Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive actions in the east of Ukraine.
• The authorities of the russian federation are reacting to the defeat around the Kharkiv region by strengthening covert mobilization and recruitment and not by putting forward conditions for general mobilization.
• The kremlin is likely to have withdrawn a significant portion of the forces originally based at russian bases in former Soviet states after russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February, likely weakening russian influence in those states.
• russian and Ukrainian sources reported ground attacks by Ukrainian troops northwest of the city of Kharkiv, near the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Ingulets River, and south of the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
• russian-appointed occupation officials and bloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops landed on the Kinburn Spit.
  russian troops have conducted limited ground assaults and are strengthening positions in the eastern direction.
• The so-called "DNR" is probably trying to stop its administrators from fleeing in the face of a Ukrainian counteroffensive, demonstrating the bureaucratic fragility of the "DNR."