Ukraine can become energy independent from gas by 2030, using biofuel – study

By 2030, Ukraine can replace 4.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year with biofuels, as well as solar and wind energy, and 13.8 cubic meters by 2050.

This conclusion is given in the study of the Biotechnical Association of Ukraine, prepared for the Ukrainian Climate Network (UCN) on the possibilities of replacing natural gas with other resources.

The chairman of the board of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine, Heorhii Heletukha, claims that, according to the projected development plans, by 2030, Ukraine can entirely reduce/replace imported natural gas in volumes of up to 10 billion m³/year and become completely energy independent. By 2050, the amount of reduction/substitution of natural gas may reach almost 26 billion m³/year.

This almost completely covers all the gas needs of Ukrainians. According to the Biotechnical Association of Ukraine, the actual natural gas consumption in Ukraine in 2021 was 26.8 billion m³.

The study shows how many other alternatives can replace natural gas. Biomass accounts for the largest share, followed by the construction of wind and solar power plants.

According to forecasts by the Ukrainian Bioenergy Association, our state can potentially produce up to 10 billion m³ of biomethane/year, mainly from agricultural waste and residues, such as manure, straw, corn stalks, sunflower stems, sugar beet pulp, molasses, corn silage, as well as household waste and other types of biomass. By 2050, Ukraine can reach the total volume of biogas/biomethane production in the country up to 6 billion m3/year, part of which can be exported.

"Ukraine has a huge potential for biogas production, up to 8 billion m3 of biogas per year. This is a very ambitious goal for the next ten years," Serhii Makohon, CEO of the GTS Operator of Ukraine, confirms. "But 0.5 billion m³ of biogas in 2 years is quite realistic. Ukraine has a real opportunity due to the development of its gas extraction and biogas production to completely abandon gas imports."

As Kateryna Knysh, head of the analytical department of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, proves, "Ukraine has significant potential for the development of wind energy, both land-based and offshore, and solar energy; has enough water resources for the construction of small hydropower plants; is rich in biological resources; is defined by Europe as the future hub for the production of "green" hydrogen, which can be used for the decarbonization of all energy sectors."

Ukraine endeavored to maintain the decarbonization course by adopting documents with the strategic goals of abandoning coal and gas and transitioning to renewable energy sources.

The Government of Ukraine, represented by the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, participated in the development of the RePowerEU Plan and clearly states that the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's energy sector should be based on rejecting the import of russian fuel per the principles of the European Green Deal, the Fit for 55 Plan and, RePowerEU, i.e., at the expense of the development of such "green" sources of energy as wind, sun, small hydropower, bioenergy, and "green" hydrogen.