ISW: russians may focus on Bakhmut, Donetsk region but not take the city
Photo: Anadolu Agency
The russians may reduce their efforts to take Siversk and concentrate on Bakhmut, and it is unlikely that they will be able to take Bakhmut.
The American Institute or the Study of War (ISW) reported this.
It is noted that the russian forces tried their best to achieve concrete successes around Siversk and did not take confirmed actions in the direction of the city since the capture of the administrative border of the Luhansk region in early July. Thus, the russian command will most likely try to maintain the momentum around Bakhmut, possibly at the expense of pressure on Siversk.
russian troops conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Sloviansk and northeast and southwest of Bakhmut. It is also noted that the russians can intensify offensive operations around Avdiivka to reduce Ukrainian strikes on the Donetsk city area.
"russian forces didn't make any territorial gains on the Kharkiv Axis on July 28 but may be setting conditions for renewed offensive operations in the Kharkiv City direction," the experts said. "Successful russian offensive operations in Kharkiv are doubtful, but the russians will likely try to gain more ground in the region before the September referenda," the researcher added.
Ukrainian forces continued striking russian military infrastructure on the Southern Axis on July 28. russian forces also attempted a limited ground offensive on the southern axis but likely suffered territorial losses in the Kherson region. They are trying to preserve their land routes through the Dnipro, connecting Kherson with the rear areas in the eastern part of the Kherson region.
As for mobilization efforts, the ISW believes "russian military authorities continued to take measures to compensate for personnel losses in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 28 that russian military leadership has begun to assign the officer rank of junior lieutenant to non-commissioned officers (NCOs) without requisite education or experience on a widespread basis. The GUR additionally reported that the russian military leadership is forming specialized medical commissions to identify servicemembers who are faking illnesses to get out of service requirements."
The Kremlin continues to institutionalize its occupation administrations in occupied parts of Ukraine to prepare for sham referenda, annexation, and integration into russia.
Key Takeaways
- russian forces in the Donetsk region likely seek to capitalize on recent marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut and may deprioritize efforts to take Siversk.
- russian forces conducted limited ground assaults northwest of Sloviansk and northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.
- russian forces may intensify offensive operations around Avdiivka to reduce Ukrainian strikes in and around Donetsk City.
- russian forces may be setting conditions for renewed offensive operations toward Kharkiv City.
- russian forces attempted a limited ground offensive on the Southern Axis but are likely facing territorial losses in the Kherson region.
- russian forces are attempting to preserve their ground lines of communication over the Dnipro River connecting Kherson City to rear areas in the eastern Kherson region.
- The Kremlin continued measures to compensate for officer and manpower losses in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin continues to institutionalize its occupation administrations in occupied parts of Ukraine to prepare for sham referenda, annexation, and integration into russia.
- russian occupation forces continue to pressure Ukrainian civilians in occupied areas to use russian rubles and passports and attend russian-run schools, setting conditions for longer-term social control in occupied territories.
