British intelligence: russian army plans to switch focus to Donetsk region, but needs a break
russian troops will need a pause before moving on to further offensive operations
Rubryka reports, citing a review by the British Ministry of Defense. Their intelligence says a pause can lead to losing the momentum gained during the last week.
Despite the russians capturing most of Sievierodonetsk, the main road leading to the Sievierodonetsk "pocket" is likely to remain under Ukrainian control. russia continues to increase local gains due to the intense concentration of artillery. However, capturing the city costs russian troops losses, the intelligence says.
The British Ministry of Defense believes the russians will then force the Siverskyi Donets River, which is a natural obstacle in its areas of attack. Forcing is extremely important for the russian forces while they're preparing to shift their attention from Luhansk to the Donetsk region, intelligence officials say.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 2 June 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/Cgie1d3GJa
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/oC4NSGhSQT
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 2, 2022
Potential crossing points for russian troops include areas between Sievierodonetsk and the neighboring city of Lysychansk and near the recently captured Lyman.
In both places, the river line is probably still controlled by Ukrainian forces, which destroyed existing bridges, the review said.
"It is likely russia will need at least a short tactical pause to re-set for opposed river crossings and subsequent attacks further into Donetsk Oblast, where Ukrainian armed forces have prepared defensive positions. To do so risks losing some of the momentum they have built over the last week," the statement said.
To recap, the British intelligence considers that russia's political goal is in the occupation of all territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk region. Still, to achieve it, they need, besides Sievierodonetsk, to capture Kramatorsk and the Dnieper–Donetsk route.
As Rubryka previously reported, the russians have performed poorly in operations in the city, so they are unlikely to be able to move quickly through Sievierodonetsk.
The Institute for the Study of War says the russians continue to increase their position around the city but have not surrounded it. The experts believe that russian forces are likely to continue a gradual offensive and may surround Sievierodonetsk in the coming days.
However, according to researchers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces slowed down the progress of the russians.
