British intelligence believes russia's political goal is full occupation of Donbas
russia's political goal is the occupation of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, but to achieve this, they need to capture Kramatorsk and the Dnipro-Donetsk highway besides Sievierodonetsk
Rubryka reports, citing the British Ministry of Defense's Twitter.
According to British intelligence, russia capturing Lyman supports its operational efforts.
According to experts, the aggressors plan to surround Sievierodonetsk and close "pockets" around Ukrainian forces in the Luhansk region.
"Heavy shelling continues, and street fighting is likely taking place on the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk town. Elements of russia's Southern Grouping of Forces are likely leading the most successful axis in this sector, supported by the Central Grouping of Forces, attacking from the North. Progress has been slow, but gains are being held," the review emphasizes.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 31 May 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/IQeojTdiEP
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/EL8MZDZ4WH
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 31, 2022
However, British intelligence notes that the ways to the "pocket" remain under the control of Ukraine.
"russia has achieved greater local successes than earlier in the campaign by massing forces and fires in a relatively small area," the review said.
British intelligence says it is forcing russia to take risks in other occupied territories.
"russia's political goal is likely to occupy the full territory of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. To achieve this, russia will need to secure further challenging operational objectives beyond Sievierodonetsk," intelligence officials said.
They added that such goals were "the key city of Kramatorsk and the M04 Dnipro-Donetsk main road."
As Rubryka previously reported, the russians have performed poorly in operations in the city, so they are unlikely to be able to move quickly through Sievierodonetsk.
According to ISW, the russians continue to increase their position around the city but haven't surrounded it.
The Institute for the Study of War believes that russian forces are likely to continue a gradual offensive and may surround Sievierodonetsk in the coming days.
However, according to researchers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces slowed down the progress of the russians.
