Prime Minister Shmyhal: the total damage from Russian aggression is estimated at a trillion dollars, and the loss of GDP - 35%
The total damage from the war, including future periods, reaches a trillion dollars
This was stated by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
He also noted that the contraction of the Ukrainian economy in the month of full-scale war is estimated at 35% and above.
"We see that now when the hostilities are taking place, the first shock since the beginning of the war has not passed. According to our estimates, it is a fluctuation of 35% and slightly higher," he said.
The Prime Minister also stressed that hostilities were taking place in 10 regions, where enterprises account for about 50% of the country's GDP.
Shmyhal stressed that the further development of the Ukrainian economy would depend on how quickly the business will resume operations.
And also what will happen in the export industries? There is a reorientation from maritime to rail supplies through Eastern Europe.
"At the same time, Ukraine's losses from full-scale military aggression by Russia, taking into account both the infrastructure and economic damage already caused, and future losses in the coming years, exceed $1 trillion," Shmyhal said.
He explained that this amount consists of three parts:
First: direct infrastructure damage, i.e. destroyed bridges, roads, housing, buildings. This estimate is now about $120 billion, and more than $270 billion, including military infrastructure and other civilian expenditures;
Second: the calculation of the losses of the Ukrainian economy, i.e. the fall in GDP per month, when the fighting continues. This is a loss of profit and uninvested investment, estimated at $290 billion;
Third: the losses incurred as a result of declining GDP in the run-up to pre-war plans, as enterprises that are supposed to bring revenue to the state have been destroyed.
To recap, the International Monetary Fund believes that Ukraine needs about $4.8 billion in external financing this year, and the country's GDP will shrink by 10% if the war ends soon. At the same time, the Fund allows a reduction of -35% this year.
Ukraine's gross domestic product reached UAH 5.5 trillion last year, and real GDP grew by 3.4% after a year of pandemics.
