NAS of Ukraine: in a week almost 900 people will die from coronavirus per day

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Ksenia Omelchenko

NAS of Ukraine says that in a week almost 900 people will die from coronavirus, and the number of new infections under the worst circumstances will be 34 thousand patients per day.

Such data were published by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in the forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic by November 9, Rubryka reports.

Forecasts are based on several observations over the past year. The working group on mathematical modeling of problems related to the coronavirus epidemic created 128 models of development in 2 stages, and from them chose the best, i.e. the one that gives the least error. The expected results are as follows:

• Unfortunately, the current wave in Ukraine will continue to grow.
• The average number of new infections per day on November 9 can average 24 thousand cases. This is 34 thousand patients a day in the worst case or 14 thousand in the best case, i.e. if the number of contacts between people decreases by 25%.
• The average number of new fatalities per day is 841 (935 if we don't reduce the number of contacts by a quarter or 747 if we reduce it).

The information on the source data used to make the forecasts is also noteworthy.

• The incidence increased in Kyiv faster than in Ukraine as a whole, where, according to laboratories, the number of positive PCR test results is the highest in history. The number of daily hospitalizations in the capital per 100,000 population exceeded the national average.
• Statistics on the number of patients in Kyiv are underestimated. In the capital, the number of positive PCR tests doesn't correspond to the number of cases recorded in official statistics. The number of PCR tests exceeded the spring maximum, and according to statistics, this is not visible.
• The effectiveness of vaccination against hospitalization was about 87% for the fully vaccinated population and about 62% for the partially vaccinated.