Russian troops near Ukrainian border aren't enough for a large-scale offensive, ICG analysts say
The number of Russian troops currently concentrated near Ukraine's borders isn't enough for a full-scale offensive.
Analysts of the International Crisis Group (ICG) reached this conclusion, Ukrinform reports.
As noted, the probability that the bloody battles that raged in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 will now be repeated seems low.
"Although the number and configuration of troops is a cause for concern, it's not in line with the offensive outlay," the statement said.
The ICG believes that the relocation of troops and Moscow's aggressive rhetoric may indicate that it is becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the situation in eastern Ukraine and is trying to pressure Kyiv to make concessions.
Moscow can hope that the combination of increasing military forces at the borders and rhetoric about "protecting" its citizens will make Kyiv think twice about the response if the Russian-backed armed forces in ORDLO try to gain some tactical advantage.
As reported by Rubryka, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Ruslan Khomchak said during a speech in the Verkhovna Rada that there were 28 battalion tactical groups of the Russian Federation along the state border of Ukraine, as well as in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and Crimea, posing a potential threat to Ukraine's national security.