16:27 09 Feb 2021

If a presidential election took place now, Zelenskyi would win - Survey


If the presidential election were to take place shortly, incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskyi would receive the most votes in the first round, and he'd also defeat possible rivals in the second round.

This is proved by the results of a survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre "Assessment of the situation in the country, trust in politicians, electoral orientations of citizens (January-February 2021)."

"If the presidential election took place soon, Zelenskyi would get the most votes in the first round (16% of all respondents or 23% of those who'll take part in the election and decide who to vote for)," the statement said.

According to the survey, 13% and 20% of respondents intend to vote for the co-chair of the OPZZH parliamentary faction, Yurii Boiko, respectively; 12% and 18%, for the "European Solidarity" leader, Petro Poroshenko; 8% and 11%, for the "Batkivshchyna" leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, 3.5% and 5%, for the leader of the "Strength and Honor" party, Ihor Smeshko; for the leader of the "Civic Position" party, Anatolii Hrytsenko—2.5% and 3%; for the ex-prime minister Volodymyr Groisman—respectively 2% and 3%; for the leader of the Radical Party, Oleh Lyashko—2% and 3%; for the chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada Dmytro Razumkov—respectively 1% and 2%; for the leader of the Svoboda faction in the Lviv City Council Ruslan Koshulynskyi—1% and 2%; for the former People's Deputy from the Opposition Bloc faction Oleksandr Vilkul—1% and 1.5%; for the mayor of Kyiv Vitalii Klychko—1% and 1%.

During the poll, respondents were asked to choose which politician they would vote for if the second round of the presidential election in Ukraine took place. The second round was modeled with the participation of four candidates: Zelenskyi, Boiko, Poroshenko, Razumkov.

Thus, with electoral rivalry in the second round with Poroshenko, Boiko, or Razumkov, Zelenskyi becomes the winner of the presidential election. Razumkov defeats Poroshenko and Boiko, and Poroshenko wins in the event of an electoral rivalry in the second round with Boiko.

The sociological service of the Razumkov Centre conducted a survey from January 29 to February 3, 2021, by face-to-face interview at the place of residence of the respondents. 2019 respondents aged 18 and over were interviewed in all regions of Ukraine, except for the Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, according to a sample representing the adult population according to the main socio-demographic indicators. The theoretical sampling error (excluding the design effect) doesn't exceed 2.3% with a probability of 0.95.

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